The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4 per cent, up from 0.9 per cent projected in August, while sharply cutting its 2026 outlook to 0.5 per cent from 1.8 per cent.
Upgraded 2025, downgraded 2026
The revised numbers come from the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released on Tuesday. The organisation said the volume of world merchandise trade, measured as the average of exports and imports, expanded by 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of the year, underpinning the stronger 2025 estimate.
But the near-term view is gloomier: the forecast for 2026 was revised downward to 0.5 per cent, from 1.8 per cent, signalling expectations of a sharp slowdown as front-loaded trade fades.
Growth picture
Global GDP is projected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2025 and 2.6 per cent in 2026, according to the report. The split-screen outlook reflects a trade landscape buffeted by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical friction even as headline trade volumes held up through the first half of the year.
The revision lands at a delicate moment for exporters, with trade chiefs in several major economies reassessing supply chains and market access amid tariff tensions and the West Asia conflict's impact on energy costs.
Sources:
- Daily World Briefing, Oct. 8 — Xinhua
Upgraded 2025, downgraded 2026
The revised numbers come from the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released on Tuesday. The organisation said the volume of world merchandise trade, measured as the average of exports and imports, expanded by 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of the year, underpinning the stronger 2025 estimate.
But the near-term view is gloomier: the forecast for 2026 was revised downward to 0.5 per cent, from 1.8 per cent, signalling expectations of a sharp slowdown as front-loaded trade fades.
Growth picture
Global GDP is projected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2025 and 2.6 per cent in 2026, according to the report. The split-screen outlook reflects a trade landscape buffeted by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical friction even as headline trade volumes held up through the first half of the year.
The revision lands at a delicate moment for exporters, with trade chiefs in several major economies reassessing supply chains and market access amid tariff tensions and the West Asia conflict's impact on energy costs.
Sources:
- Daily World Briefing, Oct. 8 — Xinhua
