India's wholesale price inflation for September is expected to cross the 10 per cent mark when the government releases the official figures on Wednesday, October 14. The data, to be released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, comes a day after September retail inflation came in at a higher-than-expected 5.54 per cent, sharpening the case for further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India.
What the forecasts say
A Union Bank of India research report projects September WPI inflation at 10.60 per cent year-on-year, up from 9.92 per cent in August and minus 0.20 per cent in September last year. The report points to higher vegetable prices, rising manufacturing costs and an adverse base effect from low food and fuel prices a year ago.
Food WPI is projected to rise to 7.90 per cent in September from 7.05 per cent in August, with vegetable prices expected to climb 15.18 per cent year-on-year — an 8.50 per cent month-on-month jump. Fuel inflation is estimated at 24.45 per cent, up from 22.96 per cent, with inflation in crude petroleum and natural gas projected to surge to 52.93 per cent from 34.41 per cent on renewed rises in global crude prices.
A separate Reuters poll of economists earlier this month put the median WPI forecast at 10.18 per cent for September. The UBI report warns that wholesale inflation is likely to stay in double digits in the near term, and keeps its FY27 average forecast at around 10 per cent, flagging risks from a possible Super El Niño, sluggish kharif sowing and the festive-season demand.
The August picture
Official data for August showed WPI inflation at 9.92 per cent, up from 9.78 per cent in July. Fuel and power inflation rose to 22.93 per cent from 20.05 per cent, while manufactured products inflation edged up to 8.37 per cent from 8.29 per cent. With crude above $100 a barrel and the rupee under pressure, economists say the RBI may keep borrowing costs higher for longer.
Sources: Lokmat Times (ANI): UBI projects wholesale inflation at 10.6% in September · Reuters: India inflation likely accelerated in September — Reuters poll
What the forecasts say
A Union Bank of India research report projects September WPI inflation at 10.60 per cent year-on-year, up from 9.92 per cent in August and minus 0.20 per cent in September last year. The report points to higher vegetable prices, rising manufacturing costs and an adverse base effect from low food and fuel prices a year ago.
Food WPI is projected to rise to 7.90 per cent in September from 7.05 per cent in August, with vegetable prices expected to climb 15.18 per cent year-on-year — an 8.50 per cent month-on-month jump. Fuel inflation is estimated at 24.45 per cent, up from 22.96 per cent, with inflation in crude petroleum and natural gas projected to surge to 52.93 per cent from 34.41 per cent on renewed rises in global crude prices.
A separate Reuters poll of economists earlier this month put the median WPI forecast at 10.18 per cent for September. The UBI report warns that wholesale inflation is likely to stay in double digits in the near term, and keeps its FY27 average forecast at around 10 per cent, flagging risks from a possible Super El Niño, sluggish kharif sowing and the festive-season demand.
The August picture
Official data for August showed WPI inflation at 9.92 per cent, up from 9.78 per cent in July. Fuel and power inflation rose to 22.93 per cent from 20.05 per cent, while manufactured products inflation edged up to 8.37 per cent from 8.29 per cent. With crude above $100 a barrel and the rupee under pressure, economists say the RBI may keep borrowing costs higher for longer.
Sources: Lokmat Times (ANI): UBI projects wholesale inflation at 10.6% in September · Reuters: India inflation likely accelerated in September — Reuters poll
