US government borrowing costs closed a bruising week at fresh multiyear highs, with the yield on 30-year Treasury debt touching 5.53% on September 26 — its highest level since 2004. The 10-year note's yield also pushed past 5.22%, a fresh multiyear high, as markets priced in further interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
Longer-term yields climbed even as shorter-term debt sold off less aggressively. The two-year yield fell about seven basis points on Friday afternoon in New York, widening key segments of the yield curve from the year's tightest levels. "There's no real technical levels for people to hang on to, and it leaves things in a bit of a vacuum," said Izaac Brook, US rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "That allows yields to just keep drifting higher and higher."
Rate-hike expectations drive the selloff
The move reflects expectations that the Fed's September rate increase — the first since 2023 — will be followed by more. Fed Chair Warsh has continued to emphasise inflation risks, and markets now price roughly a 64% probability of another hike at the October meeting. Strategists at Morgan Stanley raised their Treasury yield forecasts based on expectations of additional tightening.
The irony is that the rise is partly a signal of resilience: the US economy is coping well with higher rates, with September business activity expanding at its fastest pace in over five years and unemployment claims near historic lows. Rising yields reflect both the potential for higher energy prices to keep inflation elevated — amid the Middle East conflict — and evidence that companies are managing the higher-rate environment.
"The economy remains stronger than expected," noted analysts, though the flip side is mortgage rates back above 7%, creating a continuing headwind for housing.
Energy prices and inflation gauges in focus
Friday's yield climb came even as West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 2.3% at $92.41. With no major inflation report released this week, markets are focused on Wednesday's PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — as the next decisive data point for the direction of interest rates.
Sources:
News by CNBC TV18: 30-year Treasury yield reaches fresh multiyear highs — TradingView
www.tradingview.com
2026 US Economic Outlook Updated September 26 — Summa Money
summamoney.com
Dow Settles Near 51.8K Amid Energy Shocks and Rising US Bonds Yield — FX Leaders
www.fxleaders.com
Longer-term yields climbed even as shorter-term debt sold off less aggressively. The two-year yield fell about seven basis points on Friday afternoon in New York, widening key segments of the yield curve from the year's tightest levels. "There's no real technical levels for people to hang on to, and it leaves things in a bit of a vacuum," said Izaac Brook, US rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "That allows yields to just keep drifting higher and higher."
Rate-hike expectations drive the selloff
The move reflects expectations that the Fed's September rate increase — the first since 2023 — will be followed by more. Fed Chair Warsh has continued to emphasise inflation risks, and markets now price roughly a 64% probability of another hike at the October meeting. Strategists at Morgan Stanley raised their Treasury yield forecasts based on expectations of additional tightening.
The irony is that the rise is partly a signal of resilience: the US economy is coping well with higher rates, with September business activity expanding at its fastest pace in over five years and unemployment claims near historic lows. Rising yields reflect both the potential for higher energy prices to keep inflation elevated — amid the Middle East conflict — and evidence that companies are managing the higher-rate environment.
"The economy remains stronger than expected," noted analysts, though the flip side is mortgage rates back above 7%, creating a continuing headwind for housing.
Energy prices and inflation gauges in focus
Friday's yield climb came even as West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 2.3% at $92.41. With no major inflation report released this week, markets are focused on Wednesday's PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — as the next decisive data point for the direction of interest rates.
Sources:
News by CNBC TV18: 30-year Treasury yield reaches fresh multiyear highs — TradingView
News by CNBC TV18 on TradingView, 2026-09-26
www.tradingview.com
2026 US Economic Outlook (Copilot) Updated September 26 - Summa Money
Biggest change since last time: The US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5.15% on September 24, briefly rising to 5.18%. This brought it close to its highest level in 19 years. The background includes strong economic indicators, with the September private sector PMI reaching its highest level...
summamoney.com
Dow Settles Near 51.8K Amid Energy Shocks and Rising US Bonds Yield
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ) settled around the 51.8K level, reflecting resilience amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop defined by energy shock
www.fxleaders.com