India's automobile industry is heading into the festive season on a strong note, with a Jefferies research report released on September 30 projecting broad-based growth across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles for September — though tractors remain a weak spot.
Vehicle registrations during the first 25 days of September jumped sharply on a year-on-year basis, rising 78 per cent for passenger vehicles and 75 per cent for two-wheelers, while registrations of medium and heavy commercial vehicle trucks increased 53 per cent, according to the brokerage. Tractor registrations, by contrast, grew just 4 per cent over the same period.
Wholesale volumes expected to climb
Jefferies expects September wholesale volumes to rise 25-27 per cent year-on-year for Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, 15-17 per cent for Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki and TVS Motor, and 9-10 per cent for Royal Enfield, Hyundai Motor India and Mahindra & Mahindra. Hero MotoCorp volumes are expected to remain broadly flat.
Among individual companies, Ashok Leyland's total volumes are estimated at 27 per cent growth to 23,950 units, driven by a 36 per cent increase in medium and heavy commercial vehicles to 16,050 units. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles is projected to record 25 per cent growth to 76,000 units, while market leader Maruti Suzuki is expected to post a 17 per cent rise to 222,500 units and Hyundai Motor India a 9 per cent increase to 77,000 units.
In two-wheelers, TVS Motor's total volumes are estimated to rise 17 per cent to 635,000 units, Bajaj Auto 15 per cent to 585,000 units and Royal Enfield 10 per cent to 137,000 units. Hero MotoCorp is projected to hold nearly steady at around 684,000 units.
Tractors lag, and the low-base caveat
The report notes that the sharp year-on-year growth partly reflects a favourable comparison with last year. "YoY growth is boosted by a low base as Sep-25 was impacted by earlier timing of inauspicious period and deferment ahead of GST cut," Jefferies said.
The weakness in tractors is also visible in Mahindra & Mahindra's estimates: while the company's automobile volumes are expected to rise 20 per cent year-on-year to 121,500 units, its tractor volumes are projected to decline 6 per cent to 62,000 units, with overall volumes estimated to grow 10 per cent.
Jefferies' registration data also showed TVS gaining share in the two-wheeler market, while Mahindra increased its passenger-vehicle registration share during September.
Sources: India auto sales gain momentum in September but tractors lag: Jefferies (The Tribune/ANI) | India auto sales gain momentum in September but tractors lag: Jefferies (Lokmat Times/ANI)
Vehicle registrations during the first 25 days of September jumped sharply on a year-on-year basis, rising 78 per cent for passenger vehicles and 75 per cent for two-wheelers, while registrations of medium and heavy commercial vehicle trucks increased 53 per cent, according to the brokerage. Tractor registrations, by contrast, grew just 4 per cent over the same period.
Wholesale volumes expected to climb
Jefferies expects September wholesale volumes to rise 25-27 per cent year-on-year for Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, 15-17 per cent for Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki and TVS Motor, and 9-10 per cent for Royal Enfield, Hyundai Motor India and Mahindra & Mahindra. Hero MotoCorp volumes are expected to remain broadly flat.
Among individual companies, Ashok Leyland's total volumes are estimated at 27 per cent growth to 23,950 units, driven by a 36 per cent increase in medium and heavy commercial vehicles to 16,050 units. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles is projected to record 25 per cent growth to 76,000 units, while market leader Maruti Suzuki is expected to post a 17 per cent rise to 222,500 units and Hyundai Motor India a 9 per cent increase to 77,000 units.
In two-wheelers, TVS Motor's total volumes are estimated to rise 17 per cent to 635,000 units, Bajaj Auto 15 per cent to 585,000 units and Royal Enfield 10 per cent to 137,000 units. Hero MotoCorp is projected to hold nearly steady at around 684,000 units.
Tractors lag, and the low-base caveat
The report notes that the sharp year-on-year growth partly reflects a favourable comparison with last year. "YoY growth is boosted by a low base as Sep-25 was impacted by earlier timing of inauspicious period and deferment ahead of GST cut," Jefferies said.
The weakness in tractors is also visible in Mahindra & Mahindra's estimates: while the company's automobile volumes are expected to rise 20 per cent year-on-year to 121,500 units, its tractor volumes are projected to decline 6 per cent to 62,000 units, with overall volumes estimated to grow 10 per cent.
Jefferies' registration data also showed TVS gaining share in the two-wheeler market, while Mahindra increased its passenger-vehicle registration share during September.
Sources: India auto sales gain momentum in September but tractors lag: Jefferies (The Tribune/ANI) | India auto sales gain momentum in September but tractors lag: Jefferies (Lokmat Times/ANI)
