Liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest monthly level since the US–Iran war began, but the waterway's energy lifeline is still operating at only about a fifth of its normal capacity, according to shipping data compiled by analytics firms.
Kpler counted about 17 confirmed LNG exits from Hormuz in September — the most since the conflict began — against roughly 86 a month before the war, leaving traffic about 80 per cent below normal. S&P Global Energy put the September figure slightly higher at 19 cargoes (13 from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates), up from 15 in June. S&P senior analyst Eric Yep said transits accelerated in the second half of September and could recover to 25 per cent of pre-war levels in October if the pace holds.
Qatar's double blow
The recovery matters most for Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, since virtually all of its LNG must transit Hormuz — there is no alternative route. According to ICIS data, Qatar exported only 18 LNG cargoes during the first six months of the war, compared with 509 in the same period a year earlier.
The disruption is not only a shipping problem. Strikes damaged two production units at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, cutting production capacity by about 17 per cent. Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi has said repairs could take about three years, though the country's other 12 units could return to normal operations within weeks if vessels can transit Hormuz safely and consistently. Qatar has also ruled out building a bypass pipeline, saying gas would still need to be re-liquefied outside the country.
In September, Qatar-linked tankers were tracked carrying LNG to India, Pakistan and China. But contracted buyers keep missing deliveries: Italy's Edison says QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries until early December, with another six cargoes due at the Adriatic LNG terminal not expected. Edison has now missed 35 Qatari cargoes since April, replacing 23 of them — mainly with US LNG. Its 25-year QatarEnergy deal covers 6.4 billion cubic metres a year, about 10 per cent of Italy's gas consumption.
Winter worries
"We don't expect Qatar LNG coming back to the market soon," Yukio Kani, chairman and global CEO of Japan's Jera — the world's largest LNG buyer — told Bloomberg TV on Friday. Spot prices are double what they were a year ago and hit their highest level since late 2022 last month. Kani warned that seasonally low European gas storage, plus an EU policy banning Russian LNG imports from January, "suggest that the spot price will go up further."
Crude oil is recovering faster: Middle East crude exports reached 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the war began though still below the 19.5 million pre-war level — because Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that bypass Hormuz. LNG has no such escape route.
Sources: LNG traffic through Hormuz returns, but remains 80% below pre-war levels — Business Today, World's top LNG buyer sees Qatar supply disruption persisting into winter — The National
Kpler counted about 17 confirmed LNG exits from Hormuz in September — the most since the conflict began — against roughly 86 a month before the war, leaving traffic about 80 per cent below normal. S&P Global Energy put the September figure slightly higher at 19 cargoes (13 from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates), up from 15 in June. S&P senior analyst Eric Yep said transits accelerated in the second half of September and could recover to 25 per cent of pre-war levels in October if the pace holds.
Qatar's double blow
The recovery matters most for Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, since virtually all of its LNG must transit Hormuz — there is no alternative route. According to ICIS data, Qatar exported only 18 LNG cargoes during the first six months of the war, compared with 509 in the same period a year earlier.
The disruption is not only a shipping problem. Strikes damaged two production units at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, cutting production capacity by about 17 per cent. Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi has said repairs could take about three years, though the country's other 12 units could return to normal operations within weeks if vessels can transit Hormuz safely and consistently. Qatar has also ruled out building a bypass pipeline, saying gas would still need to be re-liquefied outside the country.
In September, Qatar-linked tankers were tracked carrying LNG to India, Pakistan and China. But contracted buyers keep missing deliveries: Italy's Edison says QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries until early December, with another six cargoes due at the Adriatic LNG terminal not expected. Edison has now missed 35 Qatari cargoes since April, replacing 23 of them — mainly with US LNG. Its 25-year QatarEnergy deal covers 6.4 billion cubic metres a year, about 10 per cent of Italy's gas consumption.
Winter worries
"We don't expect Qatar LNG coming back to the market soon," Yukio Kani, chairman and global CEO of Japan's Jera — the world's largest LNG buyer — told Bloomberg TV on Friday. Spot prices are double what they were a year ago and hit their highest level since late 2022 last month. Kani warned that seasonally low European gas storage, plus an EU policy banning Russian LNG imports from January, "suggest that the spot price will go up further."
Crude oil is recovering faster: Middle East crude exports reached 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the war began though still below the 19.5 million pre-war level — because Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that bypass Hormuz. LNG has no such escape route.
Sources: LNG traffic through Hormuz returns, but remains 80% below pre-war levels — Business Today, World's top LNG buyer sees Qatar supply disruption persisting into winter — The National
