Hurricane Polo is expected to make landfall on Mexico's Baja California Sur coast on Monday night, after weakening from the Category 5 intensity it reached earlier in the week.
Reuters reported on September 27 that Polo had weakened to a Category 3 storm but was forecast to strike the Baja peninsula on Monday night. A US Embassy weather alert said the system was expected to ease further to Category 1 strength before making landfall in northern Baja California Sur on Monday, September 28, and then continue northeast into the state of Sonora.
**What is expected**
Forecasts late on Sunday placed Polo's centre 155 miles southwest of Cabo San Lázaro at midnight, still a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 127 mph and gusts up to 155 mph, moving to within 50 miles of the coast by noon before weakening rapidly. By midnight on Tuesday it was expected to be a Category 1 storm east of Mulegé, decaying to a tropical storm over the Sonora–Chihuahua border region by noon.
The US National Hurricane Center has warned of hurricane conditions from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe, with a hurricane warning also posted from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe and tropical-storm conditions expected in Los Cabos, La Paz and Todos Santos. National Hurricane Center guidance indicated parts of Baja California Sur could receive between four and eight inches of rain, with isolated totals approaching 10 inches — enough to generate life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, particularly in the peninsula's steep, dry terrain.
Private forecasters have warned that Polo could produce a second round of impacts along northwestern mainland Mexico after crossing the peninsula, with Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua identified as vulnerable to heavy rainfall even as the system's winds fade.
**Preparations under way**
Polo's earlier movement parallel to Mexico's southwestern coast had already forced evacuations, school closures and port restrictions before it curved back toward Baja California Sur. Authorities restricted beach access around San José del Cabo as dangerous surf developed, and evacuations, port closures and school cancellations were under way along the affected coastline. The US Embassy advised travellers to check with airlines before heading to airports, warning that flights can be cancelled even when the airport itself is undamaged.
Cabo San Lucas and the wider Los Cabos region — heavily dependent on international tourism — have been monitoring the storm closely, since power outages, flooding and road damage can disrupt the sector even when the strongest winds pass elsewhere.
Sources:
- [Hurricane Polo heads for Baja California Sur landfall after weakening from Category 5](https://business-news-today.com/hurricane-polo-heads-for-baja-california-sur-landfall-after-weakening-from-category-5/) — Business News Today, September 28, 2026 (citing Reuters reporting of September 27)
- [Weather Alert: Hurricane Polo Update — Baja Peninsula and Sonora in Storm's Path](https://mx.usembassy.gov/weather-alert-hurricane-polo-update-baja-peninsula-and-sonora-in-storms-path/) — US Embassy & Consulates in Mexico
Reuters reported on September 27 that Polo had weakened to a Category 3 storm but was forecast to strike the Baja peninsula on Monday night. A US Embassy weather alert said the system was expected to ease further to Category 1 strength before making landfall in northern Baja California Sur on Monday, September 28, and then continue northeast into the state of Sonora.
**What is expected**
Forecasts late on Sunday placed Polo's centre 155 miles southwest of Cabo San Lázaro at midnight, still a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 127 mph and gusts up to 155 mph, moving to within 50 miles of the coast by noon before weakening rapidly. By midnight on Tuesday it was expected to be a Category 1 storm east of Mulegé, decaying to a tropical storm over the Sonora–Chihuahua border region by noon.
The US National Hurricane Center has warned of hurricane conditions from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe, with a hurricane warning also posted from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe and tropical-storm conditions expected in Los Cabos, La Paz and Todos Santos. National Hurricane Center guidance indicated parts of Baja California Sur could receive between four and eight inches of rain, with isolated totals approaching 10 inches — enough to generate life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, particularly in the peninsula's steep, dry terrain.
Private forecasters have warned that Polo could produce a second round of impacts along northwestern mainland Mexico after crossing the peninsula, with Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua identified as vulnerable to heavy rainfall even as the system's winds fade.
**Preparations under way**
Polo's earlier movement parallel to Mexico's southwestern coast had already forced evacuations, school closures and port restrictions before it curved back toward Baja California Sur. Authorities restricted beach access around San José del Cabo as dangerous surf developed, and evacuations, port closures and school cancellations were under way along the affected coastline. The US Embassy advised travellers to check with airlines before heading to airports, warning that flights can be cancelled even when the airport itself is undamaged.
Cabo San Lucas and the wider Los Cabos region — heavily dependent on international tourism — have been monitoring the storm closely, since power outages, flooding and road damage can disrupt the sector even when the strongest winds pass elsewhere.
Sources:
- [Hurricane Polo heads for Baja California Sur landfall after weakening from Category 5](https://business-news-today.com/hurricane-polo-heads-for-baja-california-sur-landfall-after-weakening-from-category-5/) — Business News Today, September 28, 2026 (citing Reuters reporting of September 27)
- [Weather Alert: Hurricane Polo Update — Baja Peninsula and Sonora in Storm's Path](https://mx.usembassy.gov/weather-alert-hurricane-polo-update-baja-peninsula-and-sonora-in-storms-path/) — US Embassy & Consulates in Mexico
